In 2021, US Admiral Philip Davidson warned the US Congress that China's military would be strong enough to seize Taiwan within the next six years. Strategists began referring to the 'Davidson Window' - the period in which the US might somehow organize its forces to prevent this. Beyond computer chips and democracy, the loss of Taiwan would fundamentally restructure the geography of global power. Chinese historians have called the island 'the lock on the dragon's neck'. It forms the key link in the 'first island chain', a line that runs from Japan through Taiwan, the Philippines, and Malaysia. James Crabtree calls this 'The Perimeter'. As the Davidson Window closes in 2027, the year when strategists expect Xi Jinping could order his military to invade, THE PERIMETER offers a timely and nuanced answer to one of the biggest questions in geopolitics: is America ready?





Crabtree blends history, strategy and first-person reportage to explain how the US and its allies including Japan, Australia and New Zealand have traditionally projected power across the Pacific, and how they might continue to do so even in the face of 'carrier killer' Chinese missiles and futuristic drone technology. We visit the major military outposts and bases across the region, from sleepy Kinmen Island, the likely first target in any invasion, where one can see the lights of mainland China at night, to hidden outposts near Manila where US Marines are shaking off the dust of Middle Eastern deserts and retraining for amphibious warfare. More broadly, Crabtree examines the predicament faced by 'Asia Hands' in Washington and countries throughout the Pacific region. They want robust defence but are watching in alarm as the White House has grown more transactional and hemispheric. Could the US make a deal for Taiwan? Absolutely - this book explains what would happen in the aftermath.



James Crabtree is an award-winning author whose first book The Billionaire Raj (2018) was an Amazon Book of the Year and an FT/McKinsey Business Book of the Year finalist. He's a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and columnist for Foreign Policy. Until 2023, he was Executive Director of IISS-Asia, organizing the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit where he met personally with defence ministers from the US, China, and virtually every Indo-Pacific power. Former Mumbai Bureau Chief for the Financial Times, Associate Professor at Lee Kuan Yew School, and senior advisor in UK PM's Strategy Unit, he's currently a Senior Fellow at the Asia Society in New York.



No part of the earth is as geopolitically and economically relevant as the Western Pacific. The Perimeter is a shrewd, comprehensive, and incisive account of the military contest between the United States and China in these waters.



Can anything stop China's growing military power? From the naval strategists in Washington to the marines dug in on jungle islands, The Perimeter traces America's last ditch effort to fortify its position across the islands that rim China's coast. Timely, deeply researched, dramatically narrated, The Perimeter is essential reading for understanding the world's most dangerous flashpoint.



Meticulously reported and brilliantly analyzed, The Perimeter will be the definitive guide to the most important geopolitical flashpoint in the world.